US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)
Monthly US business-cycle activity panel, 1967-03 onward: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) — a weighted average of 85 economic indicators in production, employment, consumption/housing and sales/orders/inventories, in standard deviations from the historical mean (0 = trend growth), redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv. Carries the Chicago Fed's headline 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) plus its documented interpretation flags: recession risk (MA3 < -0.70), expansion likelihood (MA3 > -0.70) and sustained-inflation risk (MA3 > +0.70), a trailing-12-month z-score, signed below-average streaks and a 0-100 activity score. One row per month-start; the series is complete over the whole grid, so any null fails loudly. Completes the catalog's nowcast family: ADS (daily) and Dallas Fed WEI (weekly) are the faster layers. Who joins this: subscription businesses model churn against below_avg_streak and recession_risk_flag by month; shops read activity_score as the demand-regime backdrop; sales teams time big-ticket outreach on expansion_likely_flag.
Les titres et les descriptions proviennent des sources de données, en anglais.
- Lignes
- 714
- Colonnes
- 15
- Cadence de la source
- Mensuelle
- Dernière actualisation
- 1 oct. 2026
- Thème
- economy
| Colonne | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| date | date | Month-start observation date (FRED dates the CFNAI at the first of the month; panel join key). One row per month; no gaps on the grid. (unit: date) |
| year_month | string | Calendar month as YYYY-MM. (unit: string) |
| country | string | Country name (shared normalization layer). (unit: string) |
| country_code | string | ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA). (unit: string) |
| cfnai | float | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (FRED CFNAI): weighted average of 85 economic indicators in standard deviations from the historical mean. Zero = economy expanding at its trend rate; negative = below-average growth; positive = above-average growth. The binding series: the panel grid is its publication calendar. (unit: index (std dev from mean)) |
| cfnai_mom_chg | float | Month-over-month change in the CFNAI (null for the first panel month). (unit: index points) |
| cfnai_ma3 | float | Trailing 3-month moving average of the CFNAI (null for the first two panel months): the Chicago Fed's own headline gauge for interpreting the index. (unit: index (std dev from mean)) |
| cfnai_12m_zscore | float | Trailing-12-month z-score of the CFNAI level (null for the first 12 panel months): how unusual this month's activity is versus its own recent year. (unit: std dev) |
| below_avg_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai < 0 (economy growing below its historical trend rate), 0 otherwise. (unit: flag) |
| recession_risk_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 < -0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, following an expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| expansion_likely_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 > -0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, following a contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| inflation_risk_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 > +0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, more than two years into an expansion, an increasing likelihood of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| below_avg_streak | integer | Signed count of consecutive months on the current side of zero: negative while the CFNAI stays below average, positive while it stays above. (unit: months) |
| activity_score | float | Documented 0-100 composite = 100*Phi(CFNAI): 50 = economy growing at its historical trend rate, ~84 = +1 standard deviation, ~16 = -1 standard deviation. (unit: score 0-100) |
| row_hash | string | Deterministic 16-hex sha256 of month + the CFNAI level (idempotency key). (unit: string) |
10 premières lignes d’exemple — un aperçu, pas le jeu de données complet.
| date | year_month | country | country_code | cfnai | cfnai_mom_chg | cfnai_ma3 | cfnai_12m_zscore | below_avg_flag | recession_risk_flag | expansion_likely_flag | inflation_risk_flag | below_avg_streak | activity_score | row_hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1967-03-01 | 1967-03 | United States | USA | -0,35 | — | — | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 36,317 | fc5a7a7466f455ce |
| 1967-04-01 | 1967-04 | United States | USA | 0 | 0,35 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50 | e15471ef52af0da5 |
| 1967-05-01 | 1967-05 | United States | USA | -0,56 | -0,56 | -0,303 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 28,774 | 6c2ebb7f3304770c |
| 1967-06-01 | 1967-06 | United States | USA | 0,03 | 0,59 | -0,177 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51,197 | c28cddfa3a9023cc |
| 1967-07-01 | 1967-07 | United States | USA | -0,32 | -0,35 | -0,283 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 37,448 | 43579b3596ae48ea |
| 1967-08-01 | 1967-08 | United States | USA | 1,04 | 1,36 | 0,25 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 85,083 | 3c3525ba98ea73de |
| 1967-09-01 | 1967-09 | United States | USA | -0,05 | -1,09 | 0,223 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 48,006 | 89f49e84f630bfcd |
| 1967-10-01 | 1967-10 | United States | USA | 0,03 | 0,08 | 0,34 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51,197 | 4180f7b7f0dd900b |
| 1967-11-01 | 1967-11 | United States | USA | 1,36 | 1,33 | 0,447 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 91,309 | 1f7f8782878d2331 |
| 1967-12-01 | 1967-12 | United States | USA | 1,01 | -0,35 | 0,8 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 84,375 | 756bb5ca51f03c88 |
Profilé le 1 oct. 2026 à partir de l’instantané 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4
Mesuré- Complétude
- 99,9 %
- Lignes
- 714
- Colonnes
- 15
- Colonnes incomplètes
- 3
| Colonne | Manquant | Distinctes | Plage | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| datedate | 0 % | 771 | 1 mars 1967 → 1 août 2026 | — |
| year_monthvarchar | 0 % | 732 | — |
|
| countryvarchar | 0 % | 1 | — |
|
| country_codevarchar | 0 % | 1 | — |
|
| cfnaidouble | 0 % | 219 | -18,35 → 6,33médiane 0,04 | 16 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cfnai_mom_chgdouble | 0,14 % | 408 | -13,96 → 23,12médiane -0,02 | 15 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cfnai_ma3double | 0,28 % | 603 | -7,56 → 4,58médiane 0,0533 | 16 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cfnai_12m_zscoredouble | 1,5 % | 662 | -3,09 → 2,52médiane -0,0603 | 16 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| below_avg_flagbigint | 0 % | 2 | 0 → 1médiane 0 | |
| recession_risk_flagbigint | 0 % | 2 | 0 → 1médiane 0 | |
| expansion_likely_flagbigint | 0 % | 2 | 0 → 1médiane 1 | |
| inflation_risk_flagbigint | 0 % | 2 | 0 → 1médiane 0 | |
| below_avg_streakbigint | 0 % | 48 | -25 → 23médiane 1 | 13 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| activity_scoredouble | 0 % | 238 | 0 → 100médiane 51,6 | 16 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| row_hashvarchar | 0 % | 782 | — |
|
- Actuelle
20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4 · sha256 552a251377b4…
714 lignes · premier instantané
Dirigez n’importe quel LLM vers le point d’accès des métadonnées — la documentation ci-dessus est aussi lisible par machine (JSON-LD + Croissant).
curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'import requests
ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")
# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
print(row)Point d’accès API : https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly
Astuce : récupérez /llms.txt pour le catalogue complet lisible par machine.
D’où viennent ces données et ce qui en a été fait. Le travail des autres apparaît sous forme de décomptes ; seuls les projets partagés sont nommés.
Citer cet instantané
Épinglé à l’instantané 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4 et à son empreinte, pour que vos lecteurs obtiennent exactement les données utilisées.
US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless). (2026). US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly) [Data set, snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4, sha256 552a251377b4]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-10-01, from https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly?snapshot=20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4
@misc{dz_fred_cfna_intel_us_cfna_activity_monthly_552a2513,
title = {{US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)}},
author = {{US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless)}},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Datazimuts},
howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly?snapshot=20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4}},
note = {Snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4, sha256 552a251377b4bfcff32ba027c0d2bb84fc243b2b095788f7264f71a33b0955b3; accessed 2026-10-01}
}Intégrer un tableau ou un graphique
Collez ce code dans n’importe quelle page. L’intégration est épinglée au même instantané, suit le thème clair ou sombre du lecteur et affiche toujours la source, la licence et un lien de retour.
<iframe src="https://datazimuts.com/embed/chart?dataset=fred_cfna_intel%2Fus_cfna_activity_monthly&lang=fr&theme=auto&snapshot=20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4&x=date&y=cfnai&agg=avg" title="US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)" width="100%" height="380" style="border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>
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