US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)
Monthly US business-cycle activity panel, 1967-03 onward: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) — a weighted average of 85 economic indicators in production, employment, consumption/housing and sales/orders/inventories, in standard deviations from the historical mean (0 = trend growth), redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv. Carries the Chicago Fed's headline 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) plus its documented interpretation flags: recession risk (MA3 < -0.70), expansion likelihood (MA3 > -0.70) and sustained-inflation risk (MA3 > +0.70), a trailing-12-month z-score, signed below-average streaks and a 0-100 activity score. One row per month-start; the series is complete over the whole grid, so any null fails loudly. Completes the catalog's nowcast family: ADS (daily) and Dallas Fed WEI (weekly) are the faster layers. Who joins this: subscription businesses model churn against below_avg_streak and recession_risk_flag by month; shops read activity_score as the demand-regime backdrop; sales teams time big-ticket outreach on expansion_likely_flag.
- Rows
- 714
- Columns
- 15
- Source cadence
- Monthly
- Last refreshed
- Oct 1, 2026
- Theme
- economy
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| date | date | Month-start observation date (FRED dates the CFNAI at the first of the month; panel join key). One row per month; no gaps on the grid. (unit: date) |
| year_month | string | Calendar month as YYYY-MM. (unit: string) |
| country | string | Country name (shared normalization layer). (unit: string) |
| country_code | string | ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA). (unit: string) |
| cfnai | float | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (FRED CFNAI): weighted average of 85 economic indicators in standard deviations from the historical mean. Zero = economy expanding at its trend rate; negative = below-average growth; positive = above-average growth. The binding series: the panel grid is its publication calendar. (unit: index (std dev from mean)) |
| cfnai_mom_chg | float | Month-over-month change in the CFNAI (null for the first panel month). (unit: index points) |
| cfnai_ma3 | float | Trailing 3-month moving average of the CFNAI (null for the first two panel months): the Chicago Fed's own headline gauge for interpreting the index. (unit: index (std dev from mean)) |
| cfnai_12m_zscore | float | Trailing-12-month z-score of the CFNAI level (null for the first 12 panel months): how unusual this month's activity is versus its own recent year. (unit: std dev) |
| below_avg_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai < 0 (economy growing below its historical trend rate), 0 otherwise. (unit: flag) |
| recession_risk_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 < -0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, following an expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| expansion_likely_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 > -0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, following a contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| inflation_risk_flag | integer | 1 when cfnai_ma3 > +0.70: the Chicago Fed's documented threshold at which, more than two years into an expansion, an increasing likelihood of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with the CFNAI-MA3. (unit: flag) |
| below_avg_streak | integer | Signed count of consecutive months on the current side of zero: negative while the CFNAI stays below average, positive while it stays above. (unit: months) |
| activity_score | float | Documented 0-100 composite = 100*Phi(CFNAI): 50 = economy growing at its historical trend rate, ~84 = +1 standard deviation, ~16 = -1 standard deviation. (unit: score 0-100) |
| row_hash | string | Deterministic 16-hex sha256 of month + the CFNAI level (idempotency key). (unit: string) |
First 10 sample rows — a preview, not the complete dataset.
| date | year_month | country | country_code | cfnai | cfnai_mom_chg | cfnai_ma3 | cfnai_12m_zscore | below_avg_flag | recession_risk_flag | expansion_likely_flag | inflation_risk_flag | below_avg_streak | activity_score | row_hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1967-03-01 | 1967-03 | United States | USA | -0.35 | — | — | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 36.317 | fc5a7a7466f455ce |
| 1967-04-01 | 1967-04 | United States | USA | 0 | 0.35 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50 | e15471ef52af0da5 |
| 1967-05-01 | 1967-05 | United States | USA | -0.56 | -0.56 | -0.303 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 28.774 | 6c2ebb7f3304770c |
| 1967-06-01 | 1967-06 | United States | USA | 0.03 | 0.59 | -0.177 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51.197 | c28cddfa3a9023cc |
| 1967-07-01 | 1967-07 | United States | USA | -0.32 | -0.35 | -0.283 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 37.448 | 43579b3596ae48ea |
| 1967-08-01 | 1967-08 | United States | USA | 1.04 | 1.36 | 0.25 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 85.083 | 3c3525ba98ea73de |
| 1967-09-01 | 1967-09 | United States | USA | -0.05 | -1.09 | 0.223 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 48.006 | 89f49e84f630bfcd |
| 1967-10-01 | 1967-10 | United States | USA | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.34 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51.197 | 4180f7b7f0dd900b |
| 1967-11-01 | 1967-11 | United States | USA | 1.36 | 1.33 | 0.447 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 91.309 | 1f7f8782878d2331 |
| 1967-12-01 | 1967-12 | United States | USA | 1.01 | -0.35 | 0.8 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 84.375 | 756bb5ca51f03c88 |
Profiled Oct 1, 2026 from snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4
Measured- Completeness
- 99.9%
- Rows
- 714
- Columns
- 15
- Columns with gaps
- 3
| Column | Missing | Distinct | Range | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| datedate | 0% | 771 | Mar 1, 1967 → Aug 1, 2026 | — |
| year_monthvarchar | 0% | 732 | — |
|
| countryvarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| country_codevarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| cfnaidouble | 0% | 219 | -18.35 → 6.33median 0.04 | 16 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cfnai_mom_chgdouble | 0.14% | 408 | -13.96 → 23.12median -0.02 | 15 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cfnai_ma3double | 0.28% | 603 | -7.56 → 4.58median 0.0533 | 16 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cfnai_12m_zscoredouble | 1.5% | 662 | -3.09 → 2.52median -0.0603 | 16 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| below_avg_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | |
| recession_risk_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | |
| expansion_likely_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 1 | |
| inflation_risk_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | |
| below_avg_streakbigint | 0% | 48 | -25 → 23median 1 | 13 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| activity_scoredouble | 0% | 238 | 0 → 100median 51.6 | 16 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| row_hashvarchar | 0% | 782 | — |
|
- Current
20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4 · sha256 552a251377b4…
714 rows · first snapshot
Point any LLM at the metadata endpoint — the documentation above is machine-readable too (JSON-LD + Croissant).
curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'import requests
ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")
# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
print(row)API endpoint: https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly
Tip: fetch /llms.txt for the full machine-readable catalog.
Where this data comes from and what was made from it. Other people's work shows as counts; only shared projects are named.
Cite this snapshot
Pinned to snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4 and its content hash, so readers get exactly the data you used.
US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless). (2026). US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly) [Data set, snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4, sha256 552a251377b4]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-10-01, from https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly?snapshot=20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4
@misc{dz_fred_cfna_intel_us_cfna_activity_monthly_552a2513,
title = {{US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)}},
author = {{US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless)}},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Datazimuts},
howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/fred_cfna_intel/us_cfna_activity_monthly?snapshot=20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4}},
note = {Snapshot 20261001T001812Z-552a251377b4, sha256 552a251377b4bfcff32ba027c0d2bb84fc243b2b095788f7264f71a33b0955b3; accessed 2026-10-01}
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