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Open datasets, fully documented — searchable here, and readable by any LLM.

  • US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless)

    US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)

    Monthly US business-cycle activity panel, 1967-03 onward: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) — a weighted average of 85 economic indicators in production, employment, consumption/housing and sales/orders/inventories, in standard deviations from the historical mean (0 = trend growth), redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv. Carries the Chicago Fed's headline 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) plus its documented interpretation flags: recession risk (MA3 < -0.70), expansion likelihood (MA3 > -0.70) and sustained-inflation risk (MA3 > +0.70), a trailing-12-month z-score, signed below-average streaks and a 0-100 activity score. One row per month-start; the series is complete over the whole grid, so any null fails loudly. Completes the catalog's nowcast family: ADS (daily) and Dallas Fed WEI (weekly) are the faster layers. Who joins this: subscription businesses model churn against below_avg_streak and recession_risk_flag by month; shops read activity_score as the demand-regime backdrop; sales teams time big-ticket outreach on expansion_likely_flag.

    • macroeconomics
    • business-cycle
    • recession
    • nowcast
    rows
    714
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Oct 1, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK

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