Skip to content

Open data

Data library

Open datasets, fully documented — searchable here, and readable by any LLM.

2 datasets

nowcast
  • US Business-Cycle Activity Intelligence (FRED, keyless)

    US business-cycle activity panel (Chicago Fed CFNAI, monthly)

    Monthly US business-cycle activity panel, 1967-03 onward: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) — a weighted average of 85 economic indicators in production, employment, consumption/housing and sales/orders/inventories, in standard deviations from the historical mean (0 = trend growth), redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv. Carries the Chicago Fed's headline 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) plus its documented interpretation flags: recession risk (MA3 < -0.70), expansion likelihood (MA3 > -0.70) and sustained-inflation risk (MA3 > +0.70), a trailing-12-month z-score, signed below-average streaks and a 0-100 activity score. One row per month-start; the series is complete over the whole grid, so any null fails loudly. Completes the catalog's nowcast family: ADS (daily) and Dallas Fed WEI (weekly) are the faster layers. Who joins this: subscription businesses model churn against below_avg_streak and recession_risk_flag by month; shops read activity_score as the demand-regime backdrop; sales teams time big-ticket outreach on expansion_likely_flag.

    • macroeconomics
    • business-cycle
    • recession
    • nowcast
    rows
    714
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Oct 1, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • US Business Conditions (Philadelphia Fed ADS index, keyless)

    US business conditions daily: Philly Fed ADS index

    Daily US business-conditions panel, 1960-03-01 onward: the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) index (standardized, mean 0 / sd 1; positive = better-than-average conditions), the Philly Fed's own 7-day and 30-day trailing smoothed levels, the NBER recession flag as published (RECBARS), plus deterministic derived features: regime and regime_tier (expansion/contraction, strong/weak on the unit-sd scale), business_conditions_score = 100*Phi(7-day mean), trailing-1-year z-score, signed streak_days, zero-crossing event flags, and trailing-1-year new high/low flags. One row per day x USA; raw gates (exact 3-column layout, gapless calendar days, finite levels, RECBARS in {0,1}) fail loudly, never imputed. Upstream: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, most-current ADS vintage, keyless. Who joins this: online shops join revenue on date, subscription businesses use the score and tiers as demand-regime features for churn models, sales teams read streaks and crossings as the macro backdrop.

    • macroeconomics
    • daily
    • usa
    • demand-forecasting
    rows
    24,316
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Sep 30, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK

Use your own AI key

Once today's free allowance is used up, AI features can run on your own provider account.

Kept in this browser tab only (cleared when you close it) and sent with each AI request. Our servers use it for that request and never store or log it.