Bibliothèque

US Business-Cycle & Core-Inflation Intelligence (FRED, keyless)

US NBER recession indicator, monthly

Monthly US business-cycle reference panel, 1854-12 onward: the NBER-based recession indicator (FRED USREC), a 0/1 dummy marking the period from the month following each NBER business-cycle peak through the trough month. Carries recession_start and recession_end flags, a per-episode episode_id, months_into_recession and months_since_last_recession for regime-duration features. Upstream: National Bureau of Economic Research business-cycle reference dates, redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv (restores the reference series purged from the API-key FRED connector on 2026-09-29). Method caveats: the NBER declares peaks and troughs with a long lag, so recent months can be revised from 0 to 1; the opening 1854-12 episode starts in-recession with no observed start. One row per month x USA; the series is binary by construction and any non-0/1 value fails loudly. Who joins this: all three personas join on year_month + country_code to condition demand, churn and pipeline models on the official recession regime.

• recession
• business-cycle
• nber
• macroeconomics