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Japan Tankan Business-Conditions Intelligence (BoJ, keyless)

Japan Tankan business-conditions DI (quarterly)

Quarterly Japan Tankan business-conditions panel, 1967Q3 onward: the Bank of Japan's Short-term Economic Survey diffusion index ("favorable" minus "unfavorable", percentage points) for large, medium-sized and small enterprises, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, actual result plus the forecast made for that quarter. Carries per-group forecast errors (the famous Tankan conservatism bias), quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year DI changes, the large-minus-small manufacturing gap and the manufacturing-minus-nonmanufacturing gap, and a four-state business-cycle regime on the headline large-manufacturing DI. One row per survey quarter; the grid ends on a forecast-only lead quarter (the forecast for the not-yet-published quarter), and nonmanufacturing columns are structurally null before 1983Q2 (upstream coverage expansion). Who joins this: macro desks read large_mfg_regime and the forecast error as the Japan cycle call; FX/rate models join (quarter) to JPY and JGB series for the BoJ policy read; equity teams use the size and sector gaps for rotation signals.

• japan
• tankan
• boj
• business-sentiment