Monthly vintage history of USDA ERS CPI food-price forecasts (2002-present, 22 food categories): forecast intervals, vintage-to-vintage revisions, forecast errors vs realized annual changes, and a documented 0-100 food-inflation pressure score with regimes. Keyless ERS CSVs.

Les titres et les descriptions proviennent des sources de données, en anglais.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service
Lignes: 9 240
Colonnes: 23
Cadence de la source: Mensuelle
Dernière actualisation: 30 sept. 2026
Thème: economy

Colonne	Type	Description
vintage_month	date	First day of the month the ERS forecast vintage was published. Join key with target_year and item. (unit: date)
target_year	integer	Calendar year the forecast covers. Join key with vintage_month and item. (unit: year)
price_index	string	Price index family. Always 'CPI' in v1 (PPI vintages excluded as stale — see connector docstring).
item	string	ERS CPI food category (22-item closed registry, e.g. 'All food', 'Eggs', 'Beef and veal'). Join key.
item_code	string	URL-safe short code for item.
country	string	Country name (shared normalization layer).
country_code	string	ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA).
forecast_lower_pct	float	Lower bound of the ERS forecast interval for the target year's annual percent change. (unit: percent)
forecast_mid_pct	float	Midpoint of the ERS forecast interval (published midpoint; imputed as (lower+upper)/2 when absent — see mid_imputed_flag). (unit: percent)
forecast_upper_pct	float	Upper bound of the ERS forecast interval for the target year's annual percent change. (unit: percent)
forecast_width_pp	float	Forecast interval width (upper minus lower), the published uncertainty gauge. Null where ERS omitted a bound (e.g. the 2023-09 and 2024-09 vintages publish lower+midpoint only). (unit: percentage points)
mid_imputed_flag	boolean	True when forecast_mid_pct was imputed as (lower+upper)/2 because the vintage lacked the midpoint attribute.
vintage_seq_no	integer	1-based sequence number of this vintage among all vintages forecasting the same (target_year, item). (unit: rank)
revision_pp	float	Change in forecast_mid_pct vs the previous vintage for the same (target_year, item). Null for the first vintage of each target. (unit: percentage points)
revision_3m_pp	float	Change in forecast_mid_pct vs 3 vintages ago for the same (target_year, item). Null until 4 vintages exist. (unit: percentage points)
actual_pct	float	Realized annual percent change from the ERS annual file. Null for not-yet-observed target years. (unit: percent)
forecast_error_pp	float	actual_pct minus the final (December-of-target-year) vintage's forecast_mid_pct. Positive = ERS under-predicted. Null except on final vintages of observed years. (unit: percentage points)
abs_forecast_error_pp	float	Absolute forecast error. (unit: percentage points)
food_inflation_pressure_score	float	Documented 0-100 food-cost pressure gauge: 100 * (0.7 * level_component + 0.3 * width_component), where level_component = (clip(z,-3,3)+3)/6 with z = (mid - mean) / sd of the item's trailing-10-year actuals, and width_component min-maxes the interval width to the item's own width history (p5-p95). A relative history gauge, not a price forecast. Null when the width is unknown or fewer than 8 trailing actual years exist. (unit: 0-100 score)
pressure_regime	string	Fixed-cut regime from the pressure score: subdued (<20) / low (<40) / moderate (<60) / elevated (<80) / high (>=80). Null when the score is null.
row_hash	string	Deterministic 16-hex SHA-256 over (vintage_month, target_year, item_code, lower, mid, upper).
as_of	date	UTC date the snapshot was built. (unit: date)
source_url	string	Exact ERS CSV URL the vintage history was parsed from.

10 premières lignes d’exemple — un aperçu, pas le jeu de données complet.

vintage_month	target_year	price_index	item	item_code	country	country_code	forecast_lower_pct	forecast_mid_pct	forecast_upper_pct	forecast_width_pp	mid_imputed_flag	vintage_seq_no	revision_pp	revision_3m_pp	actual_pct	forecast_error_pp	abs_forecast_error_pp	food_inflation_pressure_score	pressure_regime	row_hash	as_of	source_url
2002-07-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	-0,2	1,9	4,1	4,3	false	1	—	—	2,2	—	—	35,8	low	93f5934131eddd91	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2002-08-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	-0,2	1,8	4	4,2	false	2	-0,1	—	2,2	—	—	33	low	2edd5e12183bf909	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2002-09-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	-0,2	1,8	3,8	4	false	3	0	—	2,2	—	—	32,3	low	4306963fe1818f61	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2002-10-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	0	1,8	3,7	3,7	false	4	0	-0,1	2,2	—	—	31,2	low	57766ced8497b1c9	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2002-11-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	0,2	1,9	3,6	3,4	false	5	0,1	0,1	2,2	—	—	32,5	low	4dc4c13c3b9a24f9	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2002-12-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	0,3	1,9	3,5	3,2	false	6	0	0,1	2,2	—	—	31,8	low	7c13357483c3ec65	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2003-01-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	0,7	1,9	3,2	2,5	false	7	0	0,1	2,2	—	—	29,2	low	9a312bd77ba166c0	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2003-02-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	0,7	1,8	3	2,3	false	8	-0,1	-0,1	2,2	—	—	26,1	low	45db25ca10878f7f	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2003-03-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	1,1	2,1	3,1	2	false	9	0,3	0,2	2,2	—	—	32,2	low	4399178dc0000807	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv
2003-04-01	2 003	CPI	All food	all_food	United States	USA	1,2	2	2,9	1,7	false	10	-0,1	0,1	2,2	—	—	28,7	low	65e118550fb5f228	2026-09-30	https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv

30 sept. 2026Actuelle
20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0 · sha256 f886f6e145d0…
9 240 lignes · premier instantané

Dirigez n’importe quel LLM vers le point d’accès des métadonnées — la documentation ci-dessus est aussi lisible par machine (JSON-LD + Croissant).

cURL

curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/usda_food_price_outlook_intel/us_food_price_outlook_monthly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'

Python

import requests

ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/usda_food_price_outlook_intel/us_food_price_outlook_monthly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")

# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
    print(row)

Point d’accès API : https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/usda_food_price_outlook_intel/us_food_price_outlook_monthly

Astuce : récupérez /llms.txt pour le catalogue complet lisible par machine.

D’où viennent ces données et ce qui en a été fait. Le travail des autres apparaît sous forme de décomptes ; seuls les projets partagés sont nommés.

Citer cet instantané

Épinglé à l’instantané 20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0 et à son empreinte, pour que vos lecteurs obtiennent exactement les données utilisées.

APA

USDA Economic Research Service. (2026). USDA food price outlook intelligence (monthly) [Data set, snapshot 20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0, sha256 f886f6e145d0]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-09-30, from https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/usda_food_price_outlook_intel/us_food_price_outlook_monthly?snapshot=20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0

BibTeX

@misc{dz_usda_food_price_outlook_intel_us_food_pr_f886f6e1,
  title        = {{USDA food price outlook intelligence (monthly)}},
  author       = {{USDA Economic Research Service}},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Datazimuts},
  howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/usda_food_price_outlook_intel/us_food_price_outlook_monthly?snapshot=20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0}},
  note         = {Snapshot 20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0, sha256 f886f6e145d0499eae186e70544bac8a23794e7abed57a82588969e582dd109e; accessed 2026-09-30}
}

Intégrer un tableau ou un graphique

Collez ce code dans n’importe quelle page. L’intégration est épinglée au même instantané, suit le thème clair ou sombre du lecteur et affiche toujours la source, la licence et un lien de retour.

Type

Axe X

Valeur

Agrégat

Thème

HTML

<iframe src="https://datazimuts.com/embed/chart?dataset=usda_food_price_outlook_intel%2Fus_food_price_outlook_monthly&lang=fr&theme=auto&snapshot=20260930T004355Z-f886f6e145d0&x=target_year&y=target_year&agg=avg" title="USDA food price outlook intelligence (monthly)" width="100%" height="380" style="border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Connectez-vous pour commenter

Posez une question sur ce jeu de données. Les réponses viennent uniquement de sa fiche, de son profil mesuré et de son historique, et citent les faits utilisés.

USDA food price outlook intelligence (monthly)

Suivre ce jeu de données

Citer cet instantané

Intégrer un tableau ou un graphique

Utiliser votre propre clé d’IA