US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly
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Quarterly US professional-forecaster expectations intelligence, 1968-Q4 onward: median SPF forecasts for real GDP (nowcast/1q/4q levels), unemployment, CPI and PCE inflation (annualized quarterly rates), 3-month T-bill and 10-year T-bond yields, the 10-year-ahead CPI/PCE inflation anchors, and the long-run unemployment rate (UBAR), plus documented derived features — implied 4-quarter GDP growth, expected unemployment change, unemployment-vs-UBAR gap, inflation anchor gaps vs 2%, and survey-to-survey forecast revisions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, median history workbook (keyless download, verified live 2026-10-02). commercial_use=no: the Philly Fed's terms limit site content to informational, educational, and research purposes — documented and searchable, never published or bulk-served.
Les titres et les descriptions proviennent des sources de données, en anglais.
- Lignes
- 232
- Colonnes
- 32
- Cadence de la source
- Trimestrielle
- Dernière actualisation
- 2 oct. 2026
- Thème
- economy
| Colonne | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| quarter_start | date | First day of the SPF survey quarter. (unit: date) |
| year_quarter | string | Survey quarter as YYYY-QN (panel join key). (unit: string) |
| country | string | Country name (shared normalization layer). (unit: string) |
| country_code | string | ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA). (unit: string) |
| rgdp_now | float | Median nowcast of real GDP, current quarter (SPF RGDP1; billions of chain-weighted dollars). Chain-weight base year changes across history — compare growth rates, not raw levels, across base-year regimes. (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| rgdp_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead real GDP forecast (SPF RGDP2). (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| rgdp_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead real GDP forecast (SPF RGDP5). (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| unemp_now | float | Median nowcast of the civilian unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP1). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP2). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP5). (unit: percent) |
| cpi_now_ann | float | Median nowcast of CPI inflation, annualized quarterly rate (SPF CPI1; from 1981-Q3). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| cpi_1q_ahead_ann | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead CPI inflation, annualized (SPF CPI2). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| cpi_4q_ahead_ann | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead CPI inflation, annualized (SPF CPI5). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_now_ann | float | Median nowcast of PCE inflation, annualized quarterly rate (SPF PCE1; from 2007-Q1). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_1q_ahead_ann | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead PCE inflation, annualized (SPF PCE2). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_4q_ahead_ann | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead PCE inflation, annualized (SPF PCE5). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| tbill_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead 3-month Treasury bill rate (SPF TBILL2; from 1981-Q3). (unit: percent) |
| tbill_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead 3-month Treasury bill rate (SPF TBILL5). (unit: percent) |
| tbond_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead 10-year Treasury bond yield (SPF TBOND2; from 1992-Q1). (unit: percent) |
| tbond_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead 10-year Treasury bond yield (SPF TBOND5). (unit: percent) |
| cpi_10y_ahead | float | Median 10-year-ahead CPI inflation expectation (SPF CPI10; from 1991-Q4) — the long-run expectations anchor. (unit: percent) |
| pce_10y_ahead | float | Median 10-year-ahead PCE inflation expectation (SPF PCE10; from 2007-Q1). (unit: percent) |
| ubar_long_run | float | Median long-run unemployment rate expectation (SPF UBAR; Q3 surveys only, from 1996-Q3) — the forecasters' NAIRU read. (unit: percent) |
| rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pct | float | Implied 4-quarter real-GDP growth from the median levels: 100*(rgdp_4q_ahead/rgdp_now - 1). Single-vintage, base-year safe. (unit: percent) |
| unemp_exp_change_4q_pp | float | Expected 4-quarter change in unemployment: unemp_4q_ahead - unemp_now. (unit: percentage points) |
| unemp_gap_ubar_pp | float | Expected 4q-ahead unemployment vs the long-run anchor: unemp_4q_ahead - ubar_long_run (null except in Q3 surveys from 1996-Q3). (unit: percentage points) |
| cpi_anchor_gap_pp | float | Distance of the 10-year CPI expectation from the 2% objective: cpi_10y_ahead - 2.0 (null before 1991-Q4). (unit: percentage points) |
| pce_anchor_gap_pp | float | Distance of the 10-year PCE expectation from the 2% objective: pce_10y_ahead - 2.0 (null before 2007-Q1). (unit: percentage points) |
| rgdp_revision_1q_pct | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead real-GDP median: 100*(rgdp_1q_ahead(t)/rgdp_1q_ahead(t-1) - 1) (null for 1968-Q4). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_revision_1q_pp | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead unemployment median, pp (null for 1968-Q4). (unit: percentage points) |
| cpi_revision_1q_pp | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead CPI inflation median, pp (null for 1968-Q4 and before 1981-Q3). (unit: percentage points) |
| row_hash | string | Deterministic 16-hex sha256 of year_quarter + rgdp_1q_ahead + unemp_1q_ahead (idempotency key). (unit: string) |
10 premières lignes d’exemple — un aperçu, pas le jeu de données complet.
| quarter_start | year_quarter | country | country_code | rgdp_now | rgdp_1q_ahead | rgdp_4q_ahead | unemp_now | unemp_1q_ahead | unemp_4q_ahead | cpi_now_ann | cpi_1q_ahead_ann | cpi_4q_ahead_ann | pce_now_ann | pce_1q_ahead_ann | pce_4q_ahead_ann | tbill_1q_ahead | tbill_4q_ahead | tbond_1q_ahead | tbond_4q_ahead | cpi_10y_ahead | pce_10y_ahead | ubar_long_run | rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pct | unemp_exp_change_4q_pp | unemp_gap_ubar_pp | cpi_anchor_gap_pp | pce_anchor_gap_pp | rgdp_revision_1q_pct | unemp_revision_1q_pp | cpi_revision_1q_pp | row_hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-10-01 | 1968-Q4 | United States | USA | 713,934 | 718,548 | 733,333 | 3,6 | 3,6 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,717 | 0,4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | f1fca068715082e3 |
| 1969-01-01 | 1969-Q1 | United States | USA | 716,129 | 721,6 | 739,37 | 3,4 | 3,5 | 3,9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3,245 | 0,5 | — | — | — | 0,425 | -0,1 | — | 57c7e156c452cb0d |
| 1969-04-01 | 1969-Q2 | United States | USA | 722,4 | 727,778 | 740,31 | 3,3 | 3,5 | 3,9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,479 | 0,6 | — | — | — | 0,856 | 0 | — | 7910ca66cbf34c49 |
| 1969-07-01 | 1969-Q3 | United States | USA | 728,347 | 730,233 | 740,614 | 3,5 | 3,6 | 3,9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,684 | 0,4 | — | — | — | 0,337 | 0,1 | — | 50065474c83ae892 |
| 1969-10-01 | 1969-Q4 | United States | USA | 731,008 | 731,298 | 737,313 | 3,7 | 3,8 | 4,4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0,863 | 0,7 | — | — | — | 0,146 | 0,2 | — | 399300cbf7fb010f |
| 1970-01-01 | 1970-Q1 | United States | USA | 727,481 | 728,788 | 741,177 | 3,6 | 4 | 4,3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1,883 | 0,7 | — | — | — | -0,343 | 0,2 | — | abc8bbb5742a7cfb |
| 1970-04-01 | 1970-Q2 | United States | USA | 727,273 | 726,119 | 742,754 | 4,2 | 4,65 | 4,6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,129 | 0,4 | — | — | — | -0,366 | 0,65 | — | 124c9a846a14ce20 |
| 1970-07-01 | 1970-Q3 | United States | USA | 723,881 | 728,889 | 745,126 | 4,8 | 5,1 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,935 | 0,2 | — | — | — | 0,381 | 0,45 | — | 0ca499676395b603 |
| 1970-10-01 | 1970-Q4 | United States | USA | 727,675 | 725,246 | 749,202 | 5,2 | 5,7 | 5,5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2,958 | 0,3 | — | — | — | -0,5 | 0,6 | — | bbdf133172122ea7 |
| 1971-01-01 | 1971-Q1 | United States | USA | 721,252 | 733,574 | 753,283 | 5,8 | 6 | 5,6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4,441 | -0,2 | — | — | — | 1,148 | 0,3 | — | 5d7eec33a83807d6 |
Profilé le 2 oct. 2026 à partir de l’instantané 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28
Mesuré- Complétude
- 75,1 %
- Lignes
- 232
- Colonnes
- 32
- Colonnes incomplètes
- 19
19682026
| Colonne | Manquant | Distinctes | Plage | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter_startdate | 0 % | 244 | 1 oct. 1968 → 1 juill. 2026 | — |
| year_quartervarchar | 0 % | 247 | — |
|
| countryvarchar | 0 % | 1 | — |
|
| country_codevarchar | 0 % | 1 | — |
|
| rgdp_nowdouble | 0 % | 229 | 713,93 → 24 271médiane 7 181 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| rgdp_1q_aheaddouble | 0 % | 265 | 718,55 → 24 419médiane 7 227 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| rgdp_4q_aheaddouble | 0 % | 230 | 733,33 → 24 815médiane 7 362 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_nowdouble | 0 % | 60 | 3,3 → 13médiane 5,65 | 5 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_1q_aheaddouble | 0 % | 98 | 3,5 → 16,12médiane 5,7 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_4q_aheaddouble | 0 % | 100 | 3,5 → 10médiane 5,6 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_now_anndouble | 22 % | 70 | -9,2 → 11,7médiane 3 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_1q_ahead_anndouble | 22 % | 106 | -2,72 → 9,6médiane 2,9 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_4q_ahead_anndouble | 22 % | 117 | 1,6 → 7,55médiane 2,5 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| pce_now_anndouble | 65,9 % | 45 | -5,5 → 7,1médiane 2,1 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| pce_1q_ahead_anndouble | 65,9 % | 79 | -1,9 → 5,7médiane 2 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| pce_4q_ahead_anndouble | 65,9 % | 52 | 1,4 → 2,76médiane 2 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| tbill_1q_aheaddouble | 22 % | 143 | 0,032 → 15,1médiane 3,9 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| tbill_4q_aheaddouble | 22 % | 152 | 0,08 → 13,35médiane 3,93 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| tbond_1q_aheaddouble | 40,1 % | 118 | 0,6221 → 7,87médiane 4,15 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| tbond_4q_aheaddouble | 40,1 % | 122 | 0,875 → 7,91médiane 4,14 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_10y_aheaddouble | 39,7 % | 49 | 2,03 → 4médiane 2,49 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| pce_10y_aheaddouble | 65,9 % | 21 | 1,85 → 2,58médiane 2,1 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| ubar_long_rundouble | 86,6 % | 18 | 3,78 → 6médiane 5 | 1 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pctdouble | 0 % | 254 | -3,91 → 8,32médiane 2,57 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_exp_change_4q_ppdouble | 0 % | 107 | -4,6 → 5,54médiane -0,1 | 5 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_gap_ubar_ppdouble | 86,6 % | 28 | -0,6608 → 4,85médiane 0,025 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_anchor_gap_ppdouble | 39,7 % | 51 | 0,03 → 2médiane 0,4891 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| pce_anchor_gap_ppdouble | 65,9 % | 27 | -0,15 → 0,575médiane 0,1 | 2 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| rgdp_revision_1q_pctdouble | 0,43 % | 212 | -10,73 → 113,78médiane 0,7383 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| unemp_revision_1q_ppdouble | 0,43 % | 97 | -6,12 → 12,56médiane -0,1 | 6 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| cpi_revision_1q_ppdouble | 22,4 % | 145 | -7,9 → 4,92médiane 0,05 | 4 hors du 1er–99e centile |
| row_hashvarchar | 0 % | 185 | — |
|
- Actuelle
20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28 · sha256 d5a3937b1f28…
232 lignes · premier instantané
Dirigez n’importe quel LLM vers le point d’accès des métadonnées — la documentation ci-dessus est aussi lisible par machine (JSON-LD + Croissant).
cURL
curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'Python
import requests
ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")
# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
print(row)Point d’accès API : https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly
Astuce : récupérez /llms.txt pour le catalogue complet lisible par machine.
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APA
Philly Fed SPF Expectations Intel. (2026). US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly [Data set, snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28, sha256 d5a3937b1f28]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-10-04, from https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly?snapshot=20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28
BibTeX
@misc{dz_philly_spf_expectations_intel_us_profess_d5a3937b,
title = {{US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly}},
author = {{Philly Fed SPF Expectations Intel}},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Datazimuts},
howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/fr/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly?snapshot=20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28}},
note = {Snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28, sha256 d5a3937b1f286158ad51114a692dbfa161cc5a744c6fe1b0280bd9a4a7d95d77; accessed 2026-10-04}
}Intégrer un tableau ou un graphique
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<iframe src="https://datazimuts.com/embed/chart?dataset=philly_spf_expectations_intel%2Fus_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly&lang=fr&theme=auto&snapshot=20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28&x=year_quarter&y=rgdp_now&agg=avg" title="US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly" width="100%" height="380" style="border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>
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