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US home-price & rate-lock pulse: Case-Shiller, mortgage rates, regimes

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Monthly US home-price & rate-lock pulse: S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index (FRED CSUSHPISA; MoM %/YoY %, trailing-12m z-score of the monthly change, 12-month acceleration in pp, trailing-10y percentile rank) and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US, weekly observations averaged to calendar months; MoM/YoY point changes, trailing-12m z-score, trailing-10y percentile rank), plus a deterministic affordability_pressure_score = 0.5*price_hist_pct_rank + 0.5*rate_hist_pct_rank (0-100; high = expensive homes at expensive rates) and a rule-based market_regime (frozen / rate_shocked / thawing / overheating / cooling / balanced). Panel 1987-01 -> latest published month (Case-Shiller lags ~2 months). Upstream: FRED keyless fredgraph.csv (no API key). One row per year_month, country_code=USA. Who joins this: a subscription business joins monthly home-price momentum to customer cohorts on year_month to model housing-wealth effects on retention and upgrades; an online shop joins it to home-category demand forecasts on year_month.

Rows
474
Columns
18
Source cadence
Monthly
Last refreshed
Sep 30, 2026
Theme
housing

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