Bibliothèque

2025 Canadian federal election riding competitiveness (agent-curated)

2025 Canadian federal election: riding competitiveness

One-off riding-grain intelligence from the 45th Canadian general election (2025-04-28): all 343 federal electoral districts with the winner, victory margin in votes and share points, runner-up, a documented competitiveness tier (tossup <2pp, marginal 2-5, competitive 5-10, comfortable 10-15, safe >=15), the effective number of parties (1/sum(share^2)), turnout from official elector rolls (void and never-held polls excluded), an incumbent_hold flag, and the minor-party vote share. Built from the keyless Elections Canada poll-by-poll Format 2 ZIP (343 riding CSVs, one row per candidate per poll): votes are summed to parties through a closed affiliation vocabulary, rejected ballots and electors are counted once per distinct poll, and the winner is read from the official Elected indicator (exactly one per riding; asserted). Primary key: riding_number; join keys: riding_number, riding_name_en, province, election_date. Caveats: tiers and ENP describe the 2025 result, not a forecast; riding boundaries are the 2023 Representation Order; independents pool into one ENP bucket. Who joins this: a media team joins competitiveness + margin_pp to a riding watchlist on riding_number; a demographics team joins turnout_pct to riding demographics on riding_number or riding_name_en + province.

• canada
• government-of-canada
• elections
• competitiveness