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Open datasets, fully documented — searchable here, and readable by any LLM.

  • US Business-Cycle & Core-Inflation Intelligence (FRED, keyless)

    US core PCE inflation, monthly

    Monthly US core-inflation intelligence panel, 1959-01 onward: the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy (chain-type index, 2017=100, seasonally adjusted; FRED PCEPILFE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Carries 1-month, 3-month-annualized and 12-month percent changes plus an above_target_flag marking months where 12-month core inflation sits at or above the FOMC's 2% objective. Upstream: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays release, redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv (restores the level series purged from the API-key FRED connector on 2026-09-29). Method caveats: chain-type indexes reweight continuously, so index levels are not comparable across distant eras without the percent changes; BEA revises history with annual updates. One row per month x USA; in-window nulls fail loudly, never imputed. Who joins this: online shops join pricing and demand on year_month + country_code; subscription businesses test whether above-target inflation months lead involuntary churn; sales teams weight pipeline by inflation regime.

    • inflation
    • core-inflation
    • pce
    • prices
    rows
    811
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Sep 30, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • US Business-Cycle & Core-Inflation Intelligence (FRED, keyless)

    US NBER recession indicator, monthly

    Monthly US business-cycle reference panel, 1854-12 onward: the NBER-based recession indicator (FRED USREC), a 0/1 dummy marking the period from the month following each NBER business-cycle peak through the trough month. Carries recession_start and recession_end flags, a per-episode episode_id, months_into_recession and months_since_last_recession for regime-duration features. Upstream: National Bureau of Economic Research business-cycle reference dates, redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv (restores the reference series purged from the API-key FRED connector on 2026-09-29). Method caveats: the NBER declares peaks and troughs with a long lag, so recent months can be revised from 0 to 1; the opening 1854-12 episode starts in-recession with no observed start. One row per month x USA; the series is binary by construction and any non-0/1 value fails loudly. Who joins this: all three personas join on year_month + country_code to condition demand, churn and pipeline models on the official recession regime.

    • recession
    • business-cycle
    • nber
    • macroeconomics
    rows
    2,061
    Quality
    95
    Updated
    Sep 30, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK

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