US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly
No commercial useFresh
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Quarterly US professional-forecaster expectations intelligence, 1968-Q4 onward: median SPF forecasts for real GDP (nowcast/1q/4q levels), unemployment, CPI and PCE inflation (annualized quarterly rates), 3-month T-bill and 10-year T-bond yields, the 10-year-ahead CPI/PCE inflation anchors, and the long-run unemployment rate (UBAR), plus documented derived features — implied 4-quarter GDP growth, expected unemployment change, unemployment-vs-UBAR gap, inflation anchor gaps vs 2%, and survey-to-survey forecast revisions. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, median history workbook (keyless download, verified live 2026-10-02). commercial_use=no: the Philly Fed's terms limit site content to informational, educational, and research purposes — documented and searchable, never published or bulk-served.
- Rows
- 232
- Columns
- 32
- Source cadence
- Quarterly
- Last refreshed
- Oct 2, 2026
- Theme
- economy
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| quarter_start | date | First day of the SPF survey quarter. (unit: date) |
| year_quarter | string | Survey quarter as YYYY-QN (panel join key). (unit: string) |
| country | string | Country name (shared normalization layer). (unit: string) |
| country_code | string | ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA). (unit: string) |
| rgdp_now | float | Median nowcast of real GDP, current quarter (SPF RGDP1; billions of chain-weighted dollars). Chain-weight base year changes across history — compare growth rates, not raw levels, across base-year regimes. (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| rgdp_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead real GDP forecast (SPF RGDP2). (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| rgdp_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead real GDP forecast (SPF RGDP5). (unit: billion USD, chain-weighted) |
| unemp_now | float | Median nowcast of the civilian unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP1). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP2). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead unemployment rate (SPF UNEMP5). (unit: percent) |
| cpi_now_ann | float | Median nowcast of CPI inflation, annualized quarterly rate (SPF CPI1; from 1981-Q3). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| cpi_1q_ahead_ann | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead CPI inflation, annualized (SPF CPI2). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| cpi_4q_ahead_ann | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead CPI inflation, annualized (SPF CPI5). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_now_ann | float | Median nowcast of PCE inflation, annualized quarterly rate (SPF PCE1; from 2007-Q1). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_1q_ahead_ann | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead PCE inflation, annualized (SPF PCE2). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| pce_4q_ahead_ann | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead PCE inflation, annualized (SPF PCE5). (unit: percent, annualized) |
| tbill_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead 3-month Treasury bill rate (SPF TBILL2; from 1981-Q3). (unit: percent) |
| tbill_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead 3-month Treasury bill rate (SPF TBILL5). (unit: percent) |
| tbond_1q_ahead | float | Median 1-quarter-ahead 10-year Treasury bond yield (SPF TBOND2; from 1992-Q1). (unit: percent) |
| tbond_4q_ahead | float | Median 4-quarters-ahead 10-year Treasury bond yield (SPF TBOND5). (unit: percent) |
| cpi_10y_ahead | float | Median 10-year-ahead CPI inflation expectation (SPF CPI10; from 1991-Q4) — the long-run expectations anchor. (unit: percent) |
| pce_10y_ahead | float | Median 10-year-ahead PCE inflation expectation (SPF PCE10; from 2007-Q1). (unit: percent) |
| ubar_long_run | float | Median long-run unemployment rate expectation (SPF UBAR; Q3 surveys only, from 1996-Q3) — the forecasters' NAIRU read. (unit: percent) |
| rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pct | float | Implied 4-quarter real-GDP growth from the median levels: 100*(rgdp_4q_ahead/rgdp_now - 1). Single-vintage, base-year safe. (unit: percent) |
| unemp_exp_change_4q_pp | float | Expected 4-quarter change in unemployment: unemp_4q_ahead - unemp_now. (unit: percentage points) |
| unemp_gap_ubar_pp | float | Expected 4q-ahead unemployment vs the long-run anchor: unemp_4q_ahead - ubar_long_run (null except in Q3 surveys from 1996-Q3). (unit: percentage points) |
| cpi_anchor_gap_pp | float | Distance of the 10-year CPI expectation from the 2% objective: cpi_10y_ahead - 2.0 (null before 1991-Q4). (unit: percentage points) |
| pce_anchor_gap_pp | float | Distance of the 10-year PCE expectation from the 2% objective: pce_10y_ahead - 2.0 (null before 2007-Q1). (unit: percentage points) |
| rgdp_revision_1q_pct | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead real-GDP median: 100*(rgdp_1q_ahead(t)/rgdp_1q_ahead(t-1) - 1) (null for 1968-Q4). (unit: percent) |
| unemp_revision_1q_pp | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead unemployment median, pp (null for 1968-Q4). (unit: percentage points) |
| cpi_revision_1q_pp | float | Survey-to-survey revision of the 1-quarter-ahead CPI inflation median, pp (null for 1968-Q4 and before 1981-Q3). (unit: percentage points) |
| row_hash | string | Deterministic 16-hex sha256 of year_quarter + rgdp_1q_ahead + unemp_1q_ahead (idempotency key). (unit: string) |
First 10 sample rows — a preview, not the complete dataset.
| quarter_start | year_quarter | country | country_code | rgdp_now | rgdp_1q_ahead | rgdp_4q_ahead | unemp_now | unemp_1q_ahead | unemp_4q_ahead | cpi_now_ann | cpi_1q_ahead_ann | cpi_4q_ahead_ann | pce_now_ann | pce_1q_ahead_ann | pce_4q_ahead_ann | tbill_1q_ahead | tbill_4q_ahead | tbond_1q_ahead | tbond_4q_ahead | cpi_10y_ahead | pce_10y_ahead | ubar_long_run | rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pct | unemp_exp_change_4q_pp | unemp_gap_ubar_pp | cpi_anchor_gap_pp | pce_anchor_gap_pp | rgdp_revision_1q_pct | unemp_revision_1q_pp | cpi_revision_1q_pp | row_hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-10-01 | 1968-Q4 | United States | USA | 713.934 | 718.548 | 733.333 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.717 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | f1fca068715082e3 |
| 1969-01-01 | 1969-Q1 | United States | USA | 716.129 | 721.6 | 739.37 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.245 | 0.5 | — | — | — | 0.425 | -0.1 | — | 57c7e156c452cb0d |
| 1969-04-01 | 1969-Q2 | United States | USA | 722.4 | 727.778 | 740.31 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.479 | 0.6 | — | — | — | 0.856 | 0 | — | 7910ca66cbf34c49 |
| 1969-07-01 | 1969-Q3 | United States | USA | 728.347 | 730.233 | 740.614 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.684 | 0.4 | — | — | — | 0.337 | 0.1 | — | 50065474c83ae892 |
| 1969-10-01 | 1969-Q4 | United States | USA | 731.008 | 731.298 | 737.313 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.863 | 0.7 | — | — | — | 0.146 | 0.2 | — | 399300cbf7fb010f |
| 1970-01-01 | 1970-Q1 | United States | USA | 727.481 | 728.788 | 741.177 | 3.6 | 4 | 4.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.883 | 0.7 | — | — | — | -0.343 | 0.2 | — | abc8bbb5742a7cfb |
| 1970-04-01 | 1970-Q2 | United States | USA | 727.273 | 726.119 | 742.754 | 4.2 | 4.65 | 4.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.129 | 0.4 | — | — | — | -0.366 | 0.65 | — | 124c9a846a14ce20 |
| 1970-07-01 | 1970-Q3 | United States | USA | 723.881 | 728.889 | 745.126 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.935 | 0.2 | — | — | — | 0.381 | 0.45 | — | 0ca499676395b603 |
| 1970-10-01 | 1970-Q4 | United States | USA | 727.675 | 725.246 | 749.202 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.958 | 0.3 | — | — | — | -0.5 | 0.6 | — | bbdf133172122ea7 |
| 1971-01-01 | 1971-Q1 | United States | USA | 721.252 | 733.574 | 753.283 | 5.8 | 6 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.441 | -0.2 | — | — | — | 1.148 | 0.3 | — | 5d7eec33a83807d6 |
Profiled Oct 2, 2026 from snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28
Measured- Completeness
- 75.1%
- Rows
- 232
- Columns
- 32
- Columns with gaps
- 19
19682026
| Column | Missing | Distinct | Range | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter_startdate | 0% | 244 | Oct 1, 1968 → Jul 1, 2026 | — |
| year_quartervarchar | 0% | 247 | — |
|
| countryvarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| country_codevarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| rgdp_nowdouble | 0% | 229 | 713.93 → 24,271median 7,181 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| rgdp_1q_aheaddouble | 0% | 265 | 718.55 → 24,419median 7,227 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| rgdp_4q_aheaddouble | 0% | 230 | 733.33 → 24,815median 7,362 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_nowdouble | 0% | 60 | 3.3 → 13median 5.65 | 5 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_1q_aheaddouble | 0% | 98 | 3.5 → 16.12median 5.7 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_4q_aheaddouble | 0% | 100 | 3.5 → 10median 5.6 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_now_anndouble | 22% | 70 | -9.2 → 11.7median 3 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_1q_ahead_anndouble | 22% | 106 | -2.72 → 9.6median 2.9 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_4q_ahead_anndouble | 22% | 117 | 1.6 → 7.55median 2.5 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| pce_now_anndouble | 65.9% | 45 | -5.5 → 7.1median 2.1 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| pce_1q_ahead_anndouble | 65.9% | 79 | -1.9 → 5.7median 2 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| pce_4q_ahead_anndouble | 65.9% | 52 | 1.4 → 2.76median 2 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| tbill_1q_aheaddouble | 22% | 143 | 0.032 → 15.1median 3.9 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| tbill_4q_aheaddouble | 22% | 152 | 0.08 → 13.35median 3.93 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| tbond_1q_aheaddouble | 40.1% | 118 | 0.6221 → 7.87median 4.15 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| tbond_4q_aheaddouble | 40.1% | 122 | 0.875 → 7.91median 4.14 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_10y_aheaddouble | 39.7% | 49 | 2.03 → 4median 2.49 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| pce_10y_aheaddouble | 65.9% | 21 | 1.85 → 2.58median 2.1 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| ubar_long_rundouble | 86.6% | 18 | 3.78 → 6median 5 | 1 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| rgdp_exp_growth_4q_pctdouble | 0% | 254 | -3.91 → 8.32median 2.57 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_exp_change_4q_ppdouble | 0% | 107 | -4.6 → 5.54median -0.1 | 5 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_gap_ubar_ppdouble | 86.6% | 28 | -0.6608 → 4.85median 0.025 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_anchor_gap_ppdouble | 39.7% | 51 | 0.03 → 2median 0.4891 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| pce_anchor_gap_ppdouble | 65.9% | 27 | -0.15 → 0.575median 0.1 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| rgdp_revision_1q_pctdouble | 0.43% | 212 | -10.73 → 113.78median 0.7383 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| unemp_revision_1q_ppdouble | 0.43% | 97 | -6.12 → 12.56median -0.1 | 6 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| cpi_revision_1q_ppdouble | 22.4% | 145 | -7.9 → 4.92median 0.05 | 4 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| row_hashvarchar | 0% | 185 | — |
|
- Current
20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28 · sha256 d5a3937b1f28…
232 rows · first snapshot
Point any LLM at the metadata endpoint — the documentation above is machine-readable too (JSON-LD + Croissant).
cURL
curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'Python
import requests
ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")
# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
print(row)API endpoint: https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly
Tip: fetch /llms.txt for the full machine-readable catalog.
Where this data comes from and what was made from it. Other people's work shows as counts; only shared projects are named.
Cite this snapshot
Pinned to snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28 and its content hash, so readers get exactly the data you used.
APA
Philly Fed SPF Expectations Intel. (2026). US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly [Data set, snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28, sha256 d5a3937b1f28]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-10-04, from https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly?snapshot=20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28
BibTeX
@misc{dz_philly_spf_expectations_intel_us_profess_d5a3937b,
title = {{US professional forecaster expectations, quarterly}},
author = {{Philly Fed SPF Expectations Intel}},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Datazimuts},
howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/philly_spf_expectations_intel/us_professional_forecaster_expectations_quarterly?snapshot=20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28}},
note = {Snapshot 20261002T122305Z-d5a3937b1f28, sha256 d5a3937b1f286158ad51114a692dbfa161cc5a744c6fe1b0280bd9a4a7d95d77; accessed 2026-10-04}
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