US GDPNow real-GDP growth nowcast, quarterly
Quarterly US GDPNow nowcast intelligence panel, 2011-Q3 onward: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow nowcasting model for real-GDP growth (percent change at annual rate, SAAR; FRED GDPNOW, redistributed keyless via FRED fredgraph.csv). Carries the nowcast level, quarter-over-quarter revision, a 4-quarter trailing trend anchor, the acceleration read (nowcast minus trend), growth tiers and contraction/strong-growth flags, plus nowcast_live_flag marking the in-progress nowcast row. Method caveats: the latest row is a live model estimate revised multiple times within the quarter, not a realized outcome; it converges to the BEA advance estimate. One row per quarter x USA; in-window nulls fail loudly, never imputed. Who joins this: the catalog's only forward-looking macro signal — B2B sales teams join the nowcast on quarter + country_code to time outreach around growth turns; shops use vs_trend_pp and contraction_flag as demand-regime features.
- Rows
- 61
- Columns
- 14
- Source cadence
- Quarterly
- Last refreshed
- Oct 1, 2026
- Theme
- economy
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| quarter_start | date | First day of the calendar quarter (ISO date join key). (unit: date) |
| quarter | string | Calendar quarter as YYYY-QN (panel label). (unit: string) |
| year | integer | Calendar year (panel join key). (unit: integer) |
| country | string | Country name (shared normalization layer). (unit: string) |
| country_code | string | ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country code (USA). (unit: string) |
| gdpnow_pct | float | GDPNow nowcast of real-GDP growth (FRED GDPNOW; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta). The latest row is the in-progress nowcast; earlier rows are finalized history converging to the BEA advance estimate. (unit: percent change at annual rate, SAAR) |
| nowcast_live_flag | integer | 1 on the latest row — the in-progress nowcast, still subject to revision; 0 on finalized quarters. (unit: flag) |
| nowcast_qoq_pp | float | Quarter-over-quarter change in the nowcast, percentage points (null for the first panel quarter). (unit: percentage points) |
| trailing_4q_avg_pct | float | 4-quarter trailing mean of the nowcast — the trend anchor (null for the first 3 panel quarters). (unit: percent change at annual rate, SAAR) |
| vs_trend_pp | float | Nowcast minus the 4-quarter trailing average — the acceleration read (null for the first 3 panel quarters). (unit: percentage points) |
| growth_tier | string | Growth regime on fixed cut points: contraction (< 0), slow (0–1.5), solid (1.5–3), strong (>= 3). (unit: string) |
| contraction_flag | integer | 1 when the nowcast prints below 0, else 0. (unit: flag) |
| strong_growth_flag | integer | 1 when the nowcast prints at or above 3.5, else 0. (unit: flag) |
| row_hash | string | Deterministic 16-hex sha256 of quarter + the nowcast level (idempotency key). (unit: string) |
First 10 sample rows — a preview, not the complete dataset.
| quarter_start | quarter | year | country | country_code | gdpnow_pct | nowcast_live_flag | nowcast_qoq_pp | trailing_4q_avg_pct | vs_trend_pp | growth_tier | contraction_flag | strong_growth_flag | row_hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-07-01 | 2011-Q3 | 2,011 | United States | USA | 3.245 | 0 | — | — | — | strong | 0 | 0 | a243f5a99cda1ec5 |
| 2011-10-01 | 2011-Q4 | 2,011 | United States | USA | 5.168 | 0 | 1.924 | — | — | strong | 0 | 1 | e1f08ae254d0f4e9 |
| 2012-01-01 | 2012-Q1 | 2,012 | United States | USA | 3.015 | 0 | -2.153 | — | — | strong | 0 | 0 | f1207cb843757b4a |
| 2012-04-01 | 2012-Q2 | 2,012 | United States | USA | 0.224 | 0 | -2.791 | 2.913 | -2.689 | slow | 0 | 0 | 16d637b7f151130e |
| 2012-07-01 | 2012-Q3 | 2,012 | United States | USA | 1.849 | 0 | 1.625 | 2.564 | -0.715 | solid | 0 | 0 | 97c1c9328197ed5d |
| 2012-10-01 | 2012-Q4 | 2,012 | United States | USA | 0.078 | 0 | -1.771 | 1.291 | -1.214 | slow | 0 | 0 | 5c694f79ea42e020 |
| 2013-01-01 | 2013-Q1 | 2,013 | United States | USA | 2.872 | 0 | 2.794 | 1.256 | 1.616 | solid | 0 | 0 | 4733119053e49a63 |
| 2013-04-01 | 2013-Q2 | 2,013 | United States | USA | 1.3 | 0 | -1.572 | 1.525 | -0.225 | slow | 0 | 0 | bfaa38c4e48a99ec |
| 2013-07-01 | 2013-Q3 | 2,013 | United States | USA | 2.323 | 0 | 1.023 | 1.643 | 0.68 | solid | 0 | 0 | c7999c1069045c0c |
| 2013-10-01 | 2013-Q4 | 2,013 | United States | USA | 3.125 | 0 | 0.802 | 2.405 | 0.72 | strong | 0 | 0 | 47cb1a52b67e05a4 |
Profiled Oct 1, 2026 from snapshot 20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58
Measured- Completeness
- 99.2%
- Rows
- 61
- Columns
- 14
- Columns with gaps
- 3
| Column | Missing | Distinct | Range | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| quarter_startdate | 0% | 63 | Jul 1, 2011 → Jul 1, 2026 | — |
| quartervarchar | 0% | 55 | — |
|
| yearbigint | 0% | 19 | 2,011 → 2,026median 2,019 | |
| countryvarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| country_codevarchar | 0% | 1 | — |
|
| gdpnow_pctdouble | 0% | 69 | -32.08 → 36.97median 2.43 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| nowcast_live_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | 1 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| nowcast_qoq_ppdouble | 1.6% | 60 | -31.12 → 69.06median 0.12 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| trailing_4q_avg_pctdouble | 4.9% | 60 | -7.41 → 14.61median 2.2 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| vs_trend_ppdouble | 4.9% | 65 | -24.67 → 35.56median -0.1318 | 2 outside 1st–99th percentile |
| growth_tiervarchar | 0% | 4 | — |
|
| contraction_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | |
| strong_growth_flagbigint | 0% | 2 | 0 → 1median 0 | |
| row_hashvarchar | 0% | 57 | — |
|
- Current
20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58 · sha256 b49abe449e58…
61 rows · first snapshot
Point any LLM at the metadata endpoint — the documentation above is machine-readable too (JSON-LD + Croissant).
curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_gdpnow_intel/us_gdpnow_quarterly" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'import requests
ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_gdpnow_intel/us_gdpnow_quarterly").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")
# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
print(row)API endpoint: https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/fred_gdpnow_intel/us_gdpnow_quarterly
Tip: fetch /llms.txt for the full machine-readable catalog.
Where this data comes from and what was made from it. Other people's work shows as counts; only shared projects are named.
Cite this snapshot
Pinned to snapshot 20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58 and its content hash, so readers get exactly the data you used.
US GDPNow Nowcast Intelligence (FRED, keyless). (2026). US GDPNow real-GDP growth nowcast, quarterly [Data set, snapshot 20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58, sha256 b49abe449e58]. Datazimuts. Retrieved 2026-10-02, from https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/fred_gdpnow_intel/us_gdpnow_quarterly?snapshot=20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58
@misc{dz_fred_gdpnow_intel_us_gdpnow_quarterly_b49abe44,
title = {{US GDPNow real-GDP growth nowcast, quarterly}},
author = {{US GDPNow Nowcast Intelligence (FRED, keyless)}},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Datazimuts},
howpublished = {\url{https://datazimuts.com/en/datasets/fred_gdpnow_intel/us_gdpnow_quarterly?snapshot=20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58}},
note = {Snapshot 20261001T173635Z-b49abe449e58, sha256 b49abe449e58f89bd2abacc9c7747dd5ece0a6adae3927bac32a6c7d1a651fd3; accessed 2026-10-02}
}Embed a table or a chart
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