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US national activity signals (CFNAI business-cycle gauges, recession flags)

Monthly signals derived from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (redistributed by FRED, 1967-03 ->): 30-month change volatility, 3-month momentum, 3-sigma anomaly flags vs a trailing 12-month baseline, naive-drift 1-month forecasts, the Chicago Fed's 3-month moving-average business-cycle gauge, recession and expansion flags at the Chicago Fed's +/-0.70 thresholds, and a 5-year activity-regime z-score. All rows are normalized to country_code USA so they join cleanly with US macro data. Raw series: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); underlying data: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Source: National Activity Signals (derived)714 lignesMis à jour: 22/09/2026
business-cyclerecessioncfnaiactivity-indexmacroeconomicsvolatilitymomentumanomaly-detectionforecastingsignalsfred

Qualité

99.7

Attribution

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED; underlying data: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; derived signals by Frontier Data Hub)

Schéma

ColonneTypeDescription
datestringObservation date (FRED API field date; YYYY-MM-DD).
countrystring
country_codestring
series_idstringFRED series ID (CFNAI — Chicago Fed National Activity Index); the ID resolves to the series page at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI.
series_labelstringOfficial FRED series title as published for the series (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago National Activity Index).
valuefloatChicago Fed National Activity Index value, monthly, not seasonally adjusted; a zero value indicates the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate, negative values below-trend growth and positive values above-trend growth.
volatility_30dfloat
momentum_3mfloat
anomaly_flaginteger
forecast_1mfloat
cfnai_ma3float
recession_flaginteger
expansion_flaginteger
cfnai_z_5yfloat

Exemple de lignes

datecountrycountry_codeseries_idseries_labelvaluevolatility_30dmomentum_3manomaly_flagforecast_1mcfnai_ma3recession_flagexpansion_flagcfnai_z_5y
1967-03-01United StatesUSACFNAIChicago Fed National Activity Index-0.35——0——00—
1967-04-01United StatesUSACFNAIChicago Fed National Activity Index0——0——00—
1967-05-01United StatesUSACFNAIChicago Fed National Activity Index-0.56——0—-0.3033333333333333400—
1967-06-01United StatesUSACFNAIChicago Fed National Activity Index0.03—0.380—-0.1766666666666666700—
1967-07-01United StatesUSACFNAIChicago Fed National Activity Index-0.32—-0.320—-0.283333333333333400—

Télécharger un échantillon

Téléchargez l'échantillon complet de ce jeu de données (lignes d'exemple, pas le jeu complet).

Télécharger l'exemple CSVTélécharger l'exemple JSON

Utiliser avec un LLM

Dirigez n’importe quel LLM vers le point d’accès des métadonnées — la documentation ci-dessus est aussi lisible par machine (JSON-LD + Croissant).

cURL

curl "https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/cfnai_signals/us_national_activity_signals" | jq '{title, rows, columns_count, license}'

Python

import requests

ds = requests.get("https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/cfnai_signals/us_national_activity_signals").json()
print(ds["title"], ds["rows"], "rows")

# Sample rows for an LLM context window
for row in ds.get("sample_rows", [])[:5]:
    print(row)

Point d’accès API: https://datazimuts.com/v1/datasets/cfnai_signals/us_national_activity_signals

Astuce : récupérez /llms.txt pour le catalogue complet lisible par machine.

US national activity signals (CFNAI business-cycle gauges, recession flags)