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demand-forecast-lgbm-v2
Weekly demand forecast · LightGBM (lags only)
Metrics vs baselines
| Metric | Model | Naive baseline | Current method | Δ vs best baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAPE | 13.9% | 19.4% | 16.2% | −2.3 pts |
| MAE (units) | 9.6 | 13.1 | 11.0 | −1.4 |
Baseline gate
To pass evaluation, the model must beat both the naive baseline and your current method.
Gate passed
Feature importance (SHAP)
lag_1 (last week sales)42.0%
lag_4 (same week, last month)30.0%
promo_active16.0%
site_id12.0%
Model card
- Task
- Forecasting
- Target
- units_sold_next_7d per site × SKU
- Validation
- Time-based split — last 12 weeks held out
- Data version
- borealdump-2026-09-10
- Model
- LightGBM (lags only)
- Training cost
- $3.80 CAD