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Open datasets, fully documented — searchable here, and readable by any LLM.

6 datasets

deficit
  • US-China Trade Signals (derived)

    US-China bilateral trade signals (decoupling tracker)

    US-China bilateral goods-trade signals (Census via FRED, monthly 1985 ->): import/export momentum, 30-period change volatility, 3-sigma shock flags, drift forecasts, the bilateral deficit tracker, its 5-year z-score and the export reciprocity gauge. The bilateral lens: where the decoupling story shows up in the numbers. US government data via FRED (free, keyless-by-reuse of the existing FRED key).

    • china
    • trade
    • bilateral-trade
    • imports
    rows
    998
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Sep 22, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • US Federal Fiscal Signals (derived)

    US federal fiscal signals (debt/deposit momentum, deficit tracker, anomalies)

    Daily-quiet quarterly fiscal signals derived from FRED's US federal finance series: 30-period annualized change volatility, 3-month momentum, year-over-year change, 3-sigma anomaly flags, naive-drift 1-month forecasts, a per-date cross-series volatility rank, and the quarterly federal balance (receipts minus expenditures — the deficit tracker). Covers total federal public debt, federal current expenditures, federal current receipts, and the federal surplus or deficit. All rows are normalized to country_code USA so they join cleanly with US macro data. Raw series: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED; underlying data from US Treasury Fiscal Service, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Office of Management and Budget).

    • fiscal
    • debt
    • deficit
    • federal-budget
    rows
    1,002
    Quality
    99
    Updated
    Sep 22, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • IMF Fiscal-Balance Signals (derived)

    IMF fiscal-balance signals (government net lending/borrowing)

    Annual fiscal-balance signals from the IMF DataMapper (1980 -> latest WEO vintage, projections kept as published): general government net lending/borrowing as % of GDP for ~229 economies, with 10-year changes, OLS trend slopes, 3-sigma anomaly flags, 5-year extrapolation forecasts, 10-year balance z-scores and stance gauges: deficit, large-deficit and surplus flags, the fiscal impulse (1-year balance change) and a consolidation flag. The fiscal-flow lens — the balance companion to the debt stock in imf-global-debt-signals. Raw indicator: International Monetary Fund DataMapper.

    • fiscal
    • deficit
    • surplus
    • government
    rows
    7,698
    Quality
    91
    Updated
    Sep 22, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    License unclear
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — Fiscal Data

    Monthly Treasury Statement: receipts, outlays, deficit/surplus

    U.S. federal receipts, outlays and deficit/surplus from the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) Table 1: calendar-month detail for each fiscal year and fiscal-year-to-date totals, in dollars. The deficit/surplus series is positive when the government runs a deficit (outlays exceed receipts) and negative for a surplus. Monthly detail from October 2014.

    • fiscal
    • deficit
    • receipts
    • outlays
    rows
    846
    Quality
    100
    Updated
    Sep 22, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • US Treasury Fiscal-Pulse Signals (derived)

    US Treasury fiscal-pulse signals (high-frequency fiscal flows)

    High-frequency US federal fiscal signals from the Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service: daily debt velocity (debt-to-the-penny since 1993), the trailing-12-month deficit from Monthly Treasury Statements (nets out the fiscal-year sawtooth), the debt-held-by-public share, and the average interest rate on all interest-bearing debt with its 1-year repricing change. 30-period change volatility, 3-sigma shock flags, drift forecasts and a 12-period baseline. The daily/monthly companion to the quarterly FRED fiscal set. Public-domain US federal data.

    • fiscal-policy
    • federal-debt
    • deficit
    • treasury
    rows
    20,012
    Quality
    97
    Updated
    Sep 26, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK
  • U.S. Treasury — federal outlay-mix intelligence

    US federal outlay-mix intelligence (monthly)

    Monthly intelligence on how the U.S. federal government spends, from the Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement table 9 (keyless FiscalData API). Each row is one month (trailing 10 years): trailing-12-month (TTM) net outlays per budget function (19 functions: defense, health, medicare, social security, income security, net interest, and 13 more), each function's share of TTM outlays and its year-over-year share change in percentage points, a documented 0-100 outlay-concentration score (100*(HHI-1/19)/(1-1/19) over the 19 TTM shares), the top spending function and its share, the month's biggest share-gainer and biggest share-loser, plus TTM total-outlays YoY and TTM deficit context (outlays minus receipts). Units: USD, percent, percentage points, scores. Caveats: cash-basis MTS outlays (not accrual spending); negative monthly function values (e.g. Commerce and Housing Credit, Undistributed Offsetting Receipts) kept verbatim; TTM windows are rolling calendar 12-months, not fiscal years; amounts are nominal dollars; recent months are occasionally revised by Treasury. Primary key: (month). Cadence: monthly; as_of is the latest month in the panel, so identical input produces an identical content hash. U.S. federal government work (public domain) — commercial_use = yes, attribution required. Sample use: track net_interest_share_pct and the concentration score for the interest-burden era, or top_share_gainer for who is winning the budget mix each month.

    • fiscal
    • treasury
    • federal-budget
    • outlays
    rows
    109
    Quality
    99
    Updated
    Sep 27, 2026
    Fresh
    License
    Commercial use OK

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